Islamic Spring? The Saudi Arabia-Iran deal, mediated by China.
Rapid changes are taking place in the current era of conflict between unipolarity and multipolarity. NATO is waging a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine while its leading power, the United States, is also engaging in a commercial confrontation with China amid speeches that gradually increase the tension. In a spontaneous way, countries either tend to align with one of the two sides, or seek to maintain neutrality, or show some strategic ambiguity. Thus, the countries of the Western bloc plus some Asian countries such as Japan form an Atlanticist bloc, while the opposite bloc, the Eurasian one, is rapidly organizing itself and evolving. In this way, the region comprising the countries of West Asia (Middle East) will also resonate during the conflict between NATO and the Russia-China axis. Indeed, the Arab world and the Persian world form a region of great relevance in Asia:
In cultural terms, these blocs are the center of the Muslim world, and represents Sunnis and Shiites.
In trading terms, the exports and imports of the Arab world move significant amounts of money while being part of the standard trade route between the Indian Ocean and Europe (via the Suez Canal). Also, Iran will gradually integrate into innovative trade corridor projects such as the INSTC (International North-South Transportation Corridor).
In energetic terms, Iran's and Saudi Arabia's conventional oil reserves are the largest in the world, when combined.
In geostrategic terms, it is a region of the world that covers an equidistant point between Europe, Africa, Russia, and China and South Asia, therefore forming a connection point between several parts or regions.
It is more than clear that Iran will establish a alliance with Russia and China, who seek to receive Iran with open arms. In this way, the definition of Arab countries, or their neutrality, can constitute an advantage for the bloc seeking to establish a multipolar world or for the bloc seeking to maintain unipolarity. Thus, the hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran will simply hinder the Eurasian integration and will be more convenient for the West than for the bloc formed by Russia and China. In such regard, while NATO is waging its war with Russia in Ukraine, the skillful supreme leader of China, Xi Jinping, moves stealthily back and forth and became directly responsible for the biggest news of March. Xi Jinping is a key mediator of an initial rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which re-establish relations for the first time since 2016 although they had already been in tension since the Iranian revolution in 1979.
The deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran, mediated by China.
Left: Mussad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban, National Security Advisor of Saudi Arabia. Right: Ali Shamkhani, Supreme Secretary of Iran's National Security Council. Center: Wang Yi, State Councilor and Foreign Minister of China.
On March 10th, a trilateral agreement was announced between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the People's Republic of China [1]. The agreement highlights the special role of President Xi Jinping's initiative in supporting the development of good relations between the neighboring countries (Iran and Saudi Arabia). Iranian delegations (headed by Admiral Ali Shamkhani) and Saudi Arabia (headed by Dr. Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban) held meetings in Beijing from March 6th to 10th. In summary, the agreement reached between the two sides consists of:
Resuming diplomatic relations between both nations.
Reopening their embassies and missions before a period of two months.
An agreement reaffirming respect for the sovereignty of both nations and non-interference in their state affairs.
Implementing the security cooperation agreement and a general cooperation agreement in the fields of economy, trade, investment, technology, science, culture, sports, and youth.
The statement also thanks the Republic of Iraq and the Sultan of Oman for taking part in rounds of dialogue during 2021-2022, and of course, China for hosting and promoting the dialogues.
West Asia under the effect of the correlation of forces.
The union between Arabs and Persians in West Asia does not seem to benefit the West. Therefore, it is possible that the Anglo-Saxon world would look forward to exploit old theological differences of the Arab-Persian relationship and exacerbate rivalries in order to keep Iran and the Arab world not to close to each other, based on their classic "divide and conquer" strategy. This argument can be supported by initial evidence, such as the statements of American officials [2], who downplay this apparent reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and do not see it as sustainable in the long term. While in previous years, one of Iran's tasks has been to focus on bearing various sanctions from the United States, and there has been a deterioration in their relationships (see for example [3,4,5]), Saudi Arabia has become a wealthy country based on its oil production and has developed infrastructure in the Arab world, with the United States being one of their main commercial partners. Thus, Iran and Saudi Arabia seem to differ in their relationship with the United States, but their relationship with the remaining superpowers and with each other is still important to assess the correlation of forces in the international landscape.
While the Western world, based on old theories of Halford Mackinder and renewed by Henry Kissinger, seeks to maintain a certain instability in the West Asia region (part of the Rimland, a concept of Nicholas Spykman) as it is convenient for them and Iran is considered an enemy, the Russia-China axis views a reunification and peace in the region with good eyes. A reunification of West Asia would allow them to extend their infrastructure projects to generate wealth and also to strengthen their currencies (dethroning the Dollar), with Iran being a clear potential ally in their case. Thus, in the current conflict of the Atlantic bloc against Russia (the main actor) and China (a camouflaged main actor, apparently separate from the conflict), whereas Russia deals with NATO in the European front in a direct military confrontation with epicenter in Ukraine, China, on the other hand, maintains certain distance away but in the meantime tries to stabilize, revive and consolidate regions in South Asia, West Asia, and Central Asia, offering its peaceful modernization project [6]. In this way, China has been very active in the recent year making trade agreements with countries in the region, supporting and being the main actor of summits for regional economic partnership [7,8,9], and now, with the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia [10], intervening to reach security agreements. In this latter case, mediating directly with Wang Yi, sent by Xi Jinping.
This is a crucial geostrategic move by Xi Jinping (who seems to be a wolf in sheep's clothing, in the geopolitical scenario) as Russia steals the spotlight in the Anglo-Saxon international media and the United States begins to relocate its companies back to United States and Mexico (shifting from offshoring to nearshoring). Hence the top leader of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has foreseen the situation and has been busy with various different tasks: 1) Achieving his reelection for a third term as the supreme leader of the CPC. 2) Maintaining interaction in Eurasia through summits, where China is a key player. 3) Making commercial agreements for the birth of the petroyuan (with the Gulf Cooperation Council [11]). 4) Continuing the development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 5) In this particular case, acting as a mediator to bring together two nations separated by theological reasons, oil dominance, or foreign destabilization. Of course, all of the above in addition to being in close communication with Russia. Therefore, Xi Jinping has become the glue in different cracks around Eurasia, offering win-win commercial agreements, technology transfer, commercial infrastructure for trading, all aimed at Eurasian integration, and West Asia also seems to be feeling these effects. Although the West Asia region has become turbulent and has suffered invations and sanctions, and its pacification is a very difficult challenge, at least now we are beginning to see signs of a possible reunification, which if realized, could be a boom for the multipolar world, with the Muslim world as an independent pole.
Islamic spring? Will it be unipolar or multipolar?
If Iran and Saudi Arabia, besides achieving a successful initial encounter, are capable of respecting the signed agreements and strengthening their relations, this could lead not only to the reunification of the Muslim world but also to its integration as a pole within the framework of the concept of Eurasia. However, we must be realistic and understand that a real rapprochement between the main Muslim nations (encompassing Sunnis and Shiites) through a mediator like China, could be a potential lethal blow to the United States, which: 1) Loses its hegemony and relevance in the West Asia, withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan and not being considered in this rapprochement negotiations in any way. Thus, becoming a secondary actor in terms of security in West Asia. 2) A potential blow to the Dollar, the United States' biggest weapon. 3) The strategic integration of the Muslim world as a supporter of the new multipolar world proposed by China and Russia. Therefore, I consider that the treaty signed between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023 poses the beginning of an Islamic spring (whether unipolar or multipolar). We may have a scenario that favors unipolarity, such as agitations and incitements to separate both nations and stir up differences to divide them again (Anglo-Saxon spring), or a scenario that favors multipolarity that goes through a long journey, where Muslim countries will gradually unite to form a new unique and independent pole, aline with the poles of Russia and China. The fact that the rapprochement between Arabs and Persians is dangerous for US dominance is described in just three potential areas of benefit for the Russia-China axis that goes in detriment of the United States:
Iran and Saudi Arabia as players in trade routes throughout Eurasia.
Iran is currently a potential geopolitical pivot in the region [12], with Tehran as a potential commercial hub where both the BRI and the INSTC are expected to cross. Therefore, one could think that an unification of the Muslim world could extend some of these trade routes to Saudi Arabia. A possible tentative route could be around Iraq to restore the region. However, it seems tempting to think of a small maritime corridor between Saudi Arabia and Iran through the Persian Gulf. Furthermore, the maritime route of the BRI could connect both countries through the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. This could extend the BRI to West Asia and to the African continent.
The emergence of the PetroYuan.
Iran and Saudi Arabia have benefited greatly from their oil wealthiness and are part of the OPEC, the block of countries with the largest oil reserves. The combined conventional oil reserves of Iran and Saudi Arabia are the largest in the world. Recently, the concept of "PetroYuan" was put on the table by Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar [13] and highlighted by the Brazilian geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar after the China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit [14]. This was summarized in the following equation:
GCC Oil flowing to East + Renminbi invoicing = Dawn of PetroYuan
It is also interesting to note that the use of the Yuan for trade between Iran and China is gradually underway [15]. Therefore, the Yuan could benefit from the reconciliation of the Persian Gulf, where it could be that not only Iran-China and Saudi Arabia-China transactions were made in Yuan, but also (ambitiously) Iran-Saudi Arabia transactions. Thus, this could be high risk for the hegemony of the Dollar, the largest financial weapon of the United States nowadays.
From BRICS to BRICS+.
Currently, several names are being considered as new candidates proposed to join BRICS. Among the most prominent are names such as Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Kazakhstan. Among these names, in my opinion, the most advanced in the negotiations could be Iran. However, eventually, the entry of both Iran and Saudi Arabia seems more than likely, and what better than as countries respectful of each own internal policies, allies in security matters, and trading partners. Such a change might take a few decades, but it would establish the foundations of a solid BRICS+ with the Muslim world included in it. Moreover, they could adhere to the structure of the New Development Bank of the BRICS. This would mean being part of a banking structure alternative to the Anglo-Saxon international banks.
The three points described above are enough to alarm the West and frame why these news are so relevant. Now, the items described above could also help Iran to alleviate the grievances from the sanctions and to further stabilize West Asia, and everything seems to be heading in that direction with this new treaty and recent approaches towards the BRICS. The challenges, however, could be how Iran and Saudi Arabia would mediate the sale of oil, but both are part of OPEC+. In addition, how Saudi Arabia will handle its relations with the United States since they have been trading partners for several years, and the United States will seek to minimize Saudi Arabia's ties with Iran or even intervene to cut them off. Meanwhile, these efforts will counterbalance China's policy that seeks to associate with both nations and bring them closer to an Eurasian integration. Hence, China has gone from being not only a global trade player but also a regional player in security matters. Linked to this, BRICS is also gradually evolving from being an informal economical block against the West to a consolidated block in different areas (economic, financial, and silently, strategic-military). I quote Dr. Jalife (and invite you to read his analysis on the subject [16], in spanish though), while the Russians seem to be playing "chess" in Ukraine, where the United States and NATO are very skillful, and it seems it will be a protracted war, the Chinese are playing "go" in Asia, preparing the ground, and already have the economic bloc with the largest GDP in the world, the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership). Meanwhile, the Biden administration has problems both internally (bankruptcies, inflation, environmental accidents, population polarization, elections around the corner) and externally (NATO-Russia conflict, strengthening and growth of Eurasia, growth of BRICS).
On the other hand, the recent visit to Putin by Xi Jinping (after his election for a third term) suggests that the alliance between Russia and China is happening at all levels, even if it is not formally written. Thus, while the maximum representative of the West, the United States, seems to be having a difficult time and seems to be in decline, the major representatives of the multipolar world appear to be solid and growing. Russia has overcome economic sanctions and now resists and fights the NATO proxy-war on its own, and China is preparing the ground for a strong Eurasia with economic prosperity in the decades to come. Iran and Saudi Arabia are not exempt from the consequences of the hybrid war between these powers, and the first formal approach they made in the spring of 2023 will be either a green spring heading towards a multipolar world, or a chaotic spring more alike to the style the Anglo-Saxon Arab Spring.